Southern Miss — 2026 schedule & results record 2-5 · model's picks 5-2 so far
Proj rating -3.0 · SOS -5.1 · Mean wins 6.4 · Picked 6-6 · Vegas 3.5
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Line / ATS | Model | Win prob | Pick | My bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sat 09/05 | Alcorn State | home | W 49–3 | -20 ✓ | +27.7 | 95% | W ✓ | |
| 2 | Sat 09/12 | Auburn | away | L 8–43 | +32.75 ✗ | -19.3 | 13% | L ✓ | |
| 3 | Sat 09/19 | UConn | home | L 20–48 | +3.5 ✗ | +2.8 | 56% | W ✗ | |
| 4 | Sat 09/26 | Tulane | away | L 21–24 | +17.75 ✓ | -7.0 | 34% | L ✓ | |
| 6 | Tue 10/06 | Troy | away | L 34–55 | +9.5 ✗ | -0.5 | 48% | L ✓ |
Troy -10 · WIN +18 Southern Miss +10 · LOSS -50 |
| 7 | Sat 10/17 | Arkansas State | home | L 13–23 | +6 ✗ | +7.4 | 66% | W ✗ | |
| 8 | Sat 10/24 | Louisiana | home | W 35–31 | +11.5 ✓ | +4.4 | 60% | W ✓ | |
| 9 | Sat 10/31 | UL Monroe | away | — | -3.5 | +10.5 | 73% | W | |
| 10 | Thu 11/05 | James Madison | home | — | — | -2.3 | 45% | L | |
| 11 | Sat 11/14 | Louisiana Tech | away | — | — | -4.0 | 40% | L | |
| 12 | Sat 11/21 | South Alabama | home | — | — | +6.8 | 65% | W | |
| 13 | Sat 11/28 | Old Dominion | away | — | — | -1.8 | 46% | L |
Picked counts every game the model favors as a win. Mean wins is the average over 10,000 simulated seasons — a team favored 60/40 in five games wins about three of them, not five, which is why Picked runs higher than Mean wins for good teams (and lower for bad ones). Compare Mean wins to Vegas; use this page to see where the wins come from.